2015: India expected to be part of a new world order

December 08, 2009

A leading UK think tank this week predicted that the UK will drop out of the world's top ten economies by 2015. The study expects BRIC economies to make major gains in the next five years.

Illustrating the increased influence of the BRIC's, The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) expects Britain - currently seventh-largest economy in the world - to drop from the top ten, in the process being overtaken by Brazil, Russia and India.

BRIC's flags

World's top ten economies 2015

  • 1. US
  • 2. China
  • 3. Japan
  • 4. Germany
  • 5. France
  • 6. Brazil
  • 7. Russia
  • 8. India
  • 9. Canada
  • 10. Italy

Brazil and Russia are expected to overtake the UK in 2012; India is expected to follow in 2015.

India's increased global influence

If proved correct, these forecasts - based on trends in GDP, inflation and exchange rates - have implications beyond trade and finance.

Increased economic power will see the likes of India demand a more central roll on the global political stage. The CEBR warn that developed nations - particularly the UK - will have to face up to the fact that they will carry less diplomatic muscle.

CEBR chief executive Douglas McWilliams, says that the UK particularly has to get used to economic, political and social decisions being made by countries with very different approaches and agenda's. McWilliams fears that the adjustment could be "traumatic".

Meeting the challenge of the BRIC's

Developed economies like the UK can't afford to fear the BRIC's. The sooner they accept the challenge, the better. Their emergence is inevitable and questions will be posed. UK business needs to understand how to compete and where possible how to benefit from the new world order.

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