India Inc vote for continuity with support for UPA

April 17, 2009

India's business community conclude that this isn't the time for change. The majority of business leaders decide that the current government are the best option for economic recovery.

India's national elections- the world's biggest exercise in democracy - finally begin. Following years of sustained economic growth, a slowing economy leaves India Inc with a choice, stick with what they know or risk change. Recent research suggests corporate India has made up its mind.

UPA

World's largest democracy

700 million + eligible voters mean voting is staggered over five dates from 16th April to 13th May. Estimates are, 6.1 million police and security personnel will guard 828,000 polling stations, little surprise, given recent security scares that IPL has had to find a new home.

Coalition conclusion

Congress party led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) - current Government - and Bharatiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are the mainstream popular choice, but they face a challenge.

Although unlikely to win, left wing and anti business "Third Front" may play a critical role if as expected deal making is required. Led by Dalit and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Ms Mayawati they feel vindicated by the global slump, having resisted additional economic liberalization. Whoever wins expect a fragmented coalition Government.

India Inc poll

Sunday Economic Times - Synovate CEO Poll, 198 interviews with Indian CEO's show preference for continuity. 68% of the sample wants a UPA government. Despite a preference for NDA on specific issues, perception is that complexities of changing Government will hinder economic recovery.

This despite BJP's successful stewardship from 1998 to 2004, a period christened "India Shining" that saw India attract overseas investment and loosen rules on foreign ownership in media and banking.

Singh is still preferred leader

Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, with 39% is corporate India's preferred leader. NDA's preferred choice, L.K. Advani received just 15% support and colleague Narendra Modi 29%. Mayawati polled just 4%.

With 600,000 villages, India Inc must hope that their preferred choice UPA have done enough to galvanise support in rural India, a population with different priorities to India's business leaders. The next month will show whether the corporate agenda matches the mood of rural and urban country.

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