Findings

Responding to the question, "Which statement best sums up the state of India's economy", over half (57%) of the 21 respondents anticipate medium term recovery. Optimistically, 33% of the sample expects short-term recovery.

In contrast 9% conclude this is a longer-term problem. No one believes India is through the worst of it, or at the other end of the scale, that India's growth story is over.

Forecasts "too optimistic"

Amit Mittal of Executive Insights comments that current worldwide recession is a first. Therefore economic forecasts are "too optimistic", as they are based on previous, less serious events.

Mittal expects the all important outsourcing industry and travel and hospitality sectors to weather the storm and the high employment, agriculture and manufacturing sectors to hold their own.

Infrastructure is key

Joy Abdullah of TNBT reasons that India's large domestic market will speed up recovery. Yet he cautions that without increased investment in infrastructure projects recovery will be slow due to the fact that liquidity wont trickle down to the average worker. Abdullah suggests India will exit recession in Q4-2009 with effects felt end of Q1-2010.

Consumer sentiment

If consumer sentiment improves, Shankar Balan of Levi Strauss India forecasts a recovery of sorts in 2010. To facilitate this Balan believes - like Abdullah - that Government must invest in infrastructure while steel, cement and fuel prices are low.

In addition, Balan feels a reduction in taxes and fuel prices will stimulate demand and boost recovery. May national elections lead Balan to conclude that "vote winning" decisions will be made.

"Wait and watch"

According to Ronak Sheth at Next Link, the consumer is in, "wait and watch" mode, and consumer sentiment will not improve for some time. While Sheth understands the consumer wants to feel richer, he concludes they will save, not spend. Using India's real estate sector as an example, Sheth shows how reduced loan rates don't always translate to increased sales.

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