India auto sales grow but slow down in evidence

August 03, 2008

Contrary to world trends, India auto sales sped on. 100% Foreign Direct Investment attracted international marques and expectations. But, global problems now park on India's driveway. Add Government complications, say heavy fuel subsidies, and will India's growth tank run dry?

India is Asia's third biggest car market. Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) report June 2008 private car sales of 99,738, up 6.1% on June '07. Impressive, but down on April's 17% , and May's 14%, growth.

Indian automotive sector Delhi street scene India Insights www.india-insights.co.uk

Korean growth leader

SIAM year-on-year figures show Hyundai India, June growth leader, up 34% with with 21,877 sales. Volume market leader Maruti Suzuki India reported mere 2.4% growth to sales of 48,935.

Tata look to bottom and top end of auto market

Despite the international hype of the '1lakh' (£1,277) Tata Nano launch, domestic Tata Motors sales fell 5.8%. High-end, Tata reposition their non-Nano Jaguar and Range Rover marques into the mega-lakh £100,000 bracket.

Luxury Maybach, and overtly flash Lamborghini show off at Delhi's Auto Expo 2008. And, reports suggest the resurrected Daimler brand - owned by Tata - may go head-to-head with Bentley and Rolls Royce.

Global breakdown - Indian pickup?

Scotiabank's Global Auto Report, 2008, says economic troughs and turbo-charged oil prices stalled global vehicle sales to just 1.5% growth first half of 2008.

The US pickup truck and SUV market crashed with sales down 30% same period 2007. GM Corp's global vehicle sales slipped 5% the second quarter of 2008. Even Toyota this year lowered its sights from forecast 9.85 million to 9.5 million sales.

India becomes a production hub

Globally the auto industry hoped emerging market growth would repair broken North American/Western European performance.

But India's government aims to develop its automotive sector not only in sales, but as a production centre, to create not only local jobs but exports. See its Automotive Mission Plan 2006-2016.

India auto's local problems

Delhi car www.india-insights.co.uk

Its subsidies sell auto-fuels below cost. Now, state energy companies, like Indian Oil, unable to pass-on higher global prices take bigger hits - in June a barrel of oil cost around US$124, due to subsidies the equivalent cost in India was US$48. With national elections afoot, who wants raised fuel prices and voter backlash, but is there choice? With interest rate hikes, and steel prices squeezing manufacturer discounts, the sales market may gridlock late 2008.

If car sales thermometer India's economic health, Detroit and Delhi watch the mercury.

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